US scientist recommends diplomacy rather than sanctions

By Park Sae-jin Posted : September 13, 2016, 13:51 Updated : September 13, 2016, 13:51

[Yonhap News Photo]


Strengthened sanctions are not enough to stop North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, a senior US nuclear scientist said, urging Washington to step up diplomacy.

Through this year's successful nuclear tests, Pyongyang is presumed to have "designed and demonstrated" nuclear warheads that can be mounted on short-range and perhaps medium-range missiles, Siegfried Hecker said in an article to 38 North, the website of a US research institute.

North Korea's ability to field an intercontinental ballistic missile fitted with a nuclear warhead capable of reaching the United States is still a long way off -- perhaps five to ten years, he said.

"Left unchecked, Pyongyang will likely develop the capability to reach the continental United States with a nuclear tipped missile in a decade or so," Hecker said.

Much more troubling is that its nuclear and missile successes may give Pyongyang "a false sense of confidence and dramatically change regional security dynamics", he said.

Hecker suggested that the latest nuclear test demonstrates conclusively that attempting to sanction Pyongyang into submission and waiting for China to exert leverage would not work.

"Increasing sanctions and adding missile defenses in South Korea to that mix will also not suffice and make China even less likely to cooperate," he said in an apparent reference to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

Seoul's decision to bring in the US missile shield has strained relations with Beijing, which has warned the THAAD system would "seriously" hurt strategic interests of China and other countries as well as the security balance in Northeast Asia.

"What's missing is diplomacy as much as Washington may find it repugnant to deal with the Kim regime," Hecker said.

North Korea may have a stockpile of 32 to 54 kilograms of plutonium now and could add 150 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to a current stockpile of perhaps 300 to 400 kilograms, he said.

"In other words, a stockpile of sufficient fissile material for approximately 20 bombs by the end of this year and a capacity of adding approximately seven per year makes (North Korea) claim sound plausible."

Aju News Lim Chang-won = cwlim34@ajunews.com
 
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