[Yonhap Photo]
(This column was contributed by Kim Sang-soon, the President of East Asia Peace Research Association and an expert in international relations.)
On July 4, North Korea announced it had successfully launched a 'Hwasong-14', which is classified as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Pyongyang claimed that through a very vertical launch, it reached a maximum altitude of 2,803 km and flew 933 km for 37 minutes with its range estimated at 8,000 to 10,000 km, enough to hit the western mainland of the United States.
Kim Jong-un approved the missile launch in a document signed in his own handwriting on July 3, the anniversary of the creation of North Korea's 'Strategic Force' which has operated nuclear weapons and missiles since it was reorganized into the 4th military division, equivalent to the Army, the Air Force and the Navy, in early 2014.
My first suspicion: "Is it time for Kim Jong-un to feel a need for a propaganda effect to strengthen internal unity? In other words, does he still need unity within the system? Does it mean that the system itself is unstable due to its latent resistance?" My rationale starts with the assassination of Kim Jung-nam at the risk of straining ties with China.
July 4 is the US Independence Day as well as the day when the two Koreas marked the 45th anniversary of their July 4 Joint Statement concluded in 1974. At the Korea-US summit meeting in which President Moon Jae-in was touted for securing South Korea's initiative in handling North Korea along with a strengthened ROK-US alliance and proposed dialogue with Pyongyang. Major media outlets report that North Korea's Hwasong-14 launch dashed cold water on both South Korea and the United States.
My second suspicion: "Is Kim Jong-un rushing to make preparations for 'dialogue' with South Korea and the United States that would come sooner or later?" Of the two obvious cards Kim Jung-un can prepare, North Korea's sixth nuclear test is expected to cause an irreversible situation, namely an adventure to risk a war. If so, his other choice to raise the bargaining power should be a less provocative ICMB.
On July 3, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to jointly cope with pressure from President Trump and unfolded a double-sided card -- sanctions against North Korea and opposition to THAAD. However, President Xi's prepared proposal to create a favorable atmosphere for dialogue lost its ground with the launch of North Korea's Hwaseong-14. This time again, President Xi lost his face.
North Korea's missile launch came at a time when South Korea was encouraged with the outcome of summit talks with the US and when international attention was paid to preparations for the G20 summit on July 7-8. Raining on parade, which has been North Korea's 'monopoly patent', worked well again this time.
My third suspicion: "Does Kim Jong-un, who was convinced of President Moon, President Xi and President Trump taking a solid line for dialogue on matters concerning the Korean peninsula, need to test their will."
- It's time to prepare for inter-Korean dialogue after setting up a concrete Red Line.
The successful launch of the 'Hwaseong-14' means that the field deployment of North Korea's nuclear weapons has come near the top of a ridge. So, Kim Jong-un, who is in a critical situation because of strong international sanctions, may need to find a clear dialogue window and a partner who would support him. Definitely, Kim is preparing for dialogue.
President Moon Jae-in issued a strong warning that North Korea should not cross the bridge of no return. With his warning, he again called for dialogue. The date for resuming inter-Korean dialogue may not be far away, depending on how we make preparations.
However, dialogue should be means rather than a goal, and our definite goal is denuclearization. There are five things to keep in mind. First, a concrete and feasible red line should be drawn out in our North Korean policy. Second, the Kim Jong-un regime is clearly unstable. Poring on such a factor, we must reflect in proceeding with inter-Korean dialogue.
Third, we must propose a new calculation method regarding the neighboring countries. We must give up a haughty and self-contradictory attitude that the other side would be persuaded.
Fourth, political parties, the government and the Blue House should unite and strive for a concerted voice after setting up a clear policy strategy. Finally, it's time for the entire people to show their determination and courage for denuclearization and unification.
Park Sae-jin = swatchsjp@ajunews.com
reporter
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swatchsjp@ajunews.com
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