[AP/Yonhap News Photo]
North Korea is likely to conduct more ICBM tests as its latest launch using a light payload partially failed, requiring a design change to produce and deploy a reliable weapon, a US missile expert said.
North Korea presumably needs another test with a heavy re-entry vehicle because a new upper-stage propulsion system worked but that led to a lighter re-entry vehicle hitting the atmosphere at a higher velocity than in the first test, John Schilling said in an article published by 38 North, the website of a US research institute.
"The test may not have been completely successful," he said, adding that because of a reduced payload, the re-entry vehicle appeared to have disintegrated before reaching the ground. "While Pyongyang may have an ICBM, the threat is currently limited to unsophisticated warheads against targets on the US west coast."
Schilling said it will likely take another year or two of work to achieve full operational capability, and another few years beyond that if Pyongyang wants to field a solid-propellant ICBM. Yet it's the first operational exercise at night signaling that North Korea is getting a head start on training the crew, he said.
If it fast-tracks this version of the missile, Pyongyang may have a "robust, reliable" strike capability against US west coast targets sometime next year, and may have already fielded a few unreliable prototypes to provide minimal deterrence in the interim, the expert said.
He suggested that one obvious possibility is a thermonuclear warhead or more advanced reentry vehicles, along with decoys and other penetration aids to defeat missile defenses.
There will be a substantial design change for a missile capable of reaching US west coast targets, or North Korea might use an increased payload to test more advanced warheads and decoys which in the longer term could be incorporated in a new solid-fuel ICBM, he said.
"As early as next year they could begin production and deployment of a proven, reliable design with trained crews."
reporter
Lim Chang-won
cwlim34@ajunews.com
