[COLUMN] Nuclear N. Korea and fortified S. Korea

By Kim Bong-hyun Posted : September 6, 2017, 16:31 Updated : September 6, 2017, 16:31

[Yonhap Photo]



(This article was contributed by Kim Bong-hyun, former South Korean ambassador to Australia.)

North Korea declared it has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. The US, China, Japan and Russia all do not know what to do with Kim Jong-un who is uncontrollable.

All of this is happening because South Korea, the US, Japan, China and Russia all have decisive weaknesses. For their structural reasons, they can not take military measures against North Korea. If there was any possibility of military action, Kim would not have got on the runaway locomotive.

Even if it was not military means, North Korea would not have been able to do so if China used other means to belabor North Korea's decisive weak points. However, it has already become clear that military means are impossible, and China cannot take decisive measures because it is afraid of North Korea's collapse.

President Moon Jae-in proposed a 'red line'. North Korea could not have heard it seriously. Even if it crossed the line, there would be nothing we can do. Do the US and China have their own red line?. What if it is? Perhaps neither the US nor China will know. China also thinks that there is a "red line" but it does not recognize itself and it is hard to recognize. The 'red line' can be seen only when it turned up. At this point, it is clear that North Korea has not crossed the psychological red line of the US and China.

If the hydrogen bomb test is not crossing the red line, it means that North Korea has actually become a nuclear state. Now we are destined to face North Korea armed with nuclear weapons.

How should we cope in the future? The answers of realists and idealists in international politics on this issue will vary. Realists such as the Republican Party will insist on pushing North Korea hard with sustained and strong pressure while idealists such as the Moon Jae-in government will argue that there should be rational dialogue by providing conditions North Korea can accept. However, it would be more objective to say there will be almost no solution of the North Korean nuclear issue, whether it is a realist or an idealist because Kim Jong-un has no reason to give up nuclear missiles.

In the end, we will have to fortify South Korea while recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power. It will be the only way to strengthen the ROK-US alliance and make it an inviolable territory for our defense. To South Korea, the most difficult response in this process would be a disagreement with the US. If the US choice is not the fortification of South Korea but a big deal with North Korea through strong pressure, and if there is a withdrawal of US forces as Dr. Kissinger, what choice should we make?

The withdrawal of US troops stationed in South Korea will completely change the character of the ROK-US alliance. It would mean that the US undervalues South Korea's strategic value. This, in turn, will mean that China's strategic value will rise. Then, we should consider the alliance with China rather than the alliance with the US for our security.

If this happens, the balance of power in Northeast Asia may not be a balance between the ROK-US-Japan alliance and the China-North Korea alliance, but it could potentially be transformed into a US-Japan alliance and a Sino-Korean alliance. It is going back to the balance of power in the 19th century. Will the US be able to accept it? It will not. There is no reason for the US to make a strategic mistake to miss South Korea at a crucial time when the interests of the US and China clash in the Asia-Pacific region. What strategic benefits will the US gain by compromising with North Korea? In the end, the withdrawal of US troops will be difficult to achieve, and the US and South Korea will have no choice but to cooperate with each other for the fortification South Korea.

Kim Jong-un believes that with nuclear weapons, his power was consolidated and North Korea's security was ensured further. However, for the same reason that we can not stop North Korea's nuclear armament, the nuclear weapon is eventually unusable. It will only boost the psychological satisfaction of North Korean people.

As South Korea becomes an inviolable fortress, over time, North Koreans will eventually demand a new satisfaction from Kim Jong-un, not a nuclear missile. What can he give to the North Korean people? If there is nothing new to do, the September 3 nuclear test will be a big challenge for Kim.

 
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