Nuclear attack on Seoul and Tokyo estimated to kill as many as 2.1 million people: 38 North

By Lim Chang-won Posted : October 6, 2017, 22:39 Updated : October 6, 2017, 22:39

[Yonhap News Photo]


With North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields, a hypothetical nuclear attack on Seoul and Tokyo could leave as many as 2.1 million people dead and 7.7 million injured, according to 38 North, the website of a U.S. research institute.

A US military option raises a significant risk of military escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan, 38 North said, using a calculation by Michael J. Zagurek Jr., an independent consultant specializing in database management systems.

Expert analysis suggests that the North has a baseline nuclear arsenal estimated at around 20 to 25 nuclear warheads, 38 North said., adding the September 3 nuclear test was likely a thermonuclear device with estimated yields between 108 and 250 kilotons.

"If the 'unthinkable' happened, nuclear detonations over Seoul and Tokyo with North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields could result in as many as 2.1 million fatalities and 7.7 million injuries," Zagurek said.

The calculation was based on the assumption that North Korea decided to launch its entire arsenal against both Seoul and Tokyo, he said, estimating that the airburst of a single reliable 250 kt warhead over the center of Seoul could result in more than 783,000 deaths and 2.778 million injuries.

Zagurek warned that another nuclear test, especially if detonated in air or under water, an ICBM test, or a missile test near Guam might see Washington react with force. "The North Korean leadership might perceive such an attack as an effort to remove the Kim family from power and, as a result, could retaliate with nuclear weapons as a last gasp reaction before annihilation."



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